कॉमन साइकोलॉजिकल बायसेज़ इन ट्रेडिंग (Common Psychological Biases in Trading)

Common psychological biases in trading are like optical illusions. Market ek image ki tarah hai, aur kabhi kabhi aapka dimaag aise patterns ya trends dekh leta hai jo wahan hote hi nahi. Ye mental pitfalls ko pehchan karna, jaise ek static picture mein movement dekhna (confirmation bias) ya us image ko der tak dekhne ke baad lagta hai ki woh change ho raha hai (overconfidence bias), aapko hasty ya irrational decisions lene se roknemein madad karta hai. Market ko clearly dekhne ki training karke, aap in biases ko overcome kar sakte hain aur zyada rational trading choices bana sakte hain.

Trading ki duniya mein, rational aur well-informed decisions lena long-term success ke liye bohot zaroori hai. Lekin, sabse experienced traders bhi psychological biases ke liye vulnerable hote hain jo judgment ko cloud kar sakte hain aur costly mistakes tak le ja sakte hain. Ye biases cognitive shortcuts aur emotional responses se utpann hote hain, jo traders ko irrationally ya impulsively act karne par majboor karte hain.

Is article mein, hum kuch common psychological biases ko explore karenge jo trading mein paaye jaate hain, kaise ye decision-making ko affect karte hain aur inhe overcome karne ki strategies taaki aap disciplined trading kar sakein.

What Are Psychological Biases?

Psychological biases cognitive distortions ya thinking mein errors hote hain jo irrational decisions ya judgments tak le jaate hain. Ye biases aksar subconscious hote hain aur emotions, past experiences, ya preconceived notions se prabhavit hote hain. Trading ke context mein, biases traders ko unki strategies se deviate karne, excessive risk lene, ya market data ko galat interpret karne tak le ja sakte hain.

Common Psychological Biases in Trading

Chaliye kuch prevalent biases par nazar daalte hain jo traders experience karte hain aur kaise ye trading decisions mein manifest hote hain:

1. Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias tab hota hai jab traders aise information khojte hain jo unki pre-existing beliefs ya opinions ko support karti hai jabki wo evidence ko ignore karte hain jo unhe contradict karta hai. Ye bias traders ko losing positions ko hold karne ya market reversal ke signs ko ignore karne tak le ja sakta hai kyunki wo sirf aise data par dhyan dete hain jo unke initial analysis ko confirm karta hai.

Example: Ek trader ko lagta hai ki ek stock badhne wala hai aur wo sirf positive news aur upward price movements par dhyan deta hai, kisi bhi weakness ya negative news ko ignore karte hue jo potential decline suggest karti hai.

How to Overcome It: Traders ko consciously opposing viewpoints par dhyan dena chahiye aur data ko objectively analyse karna chahiye. Ek trading journal rakhna aur successful aur unsuccessful trades ko review karna ek balanced perspective develop karne mein madad kar sakta hai.

2. Loss Aversion

Loss aversion woh tendency hai jahan traders losses avoid karna prefer karte hain rather than equivalent gains acquire karna. Ye bias traders ko losing trades ko bohot der tak hold karne tak le ja sakta hai, yeh soch kar ki market unke favour mein turn karega, jo aksar larger losses tak le jaata hai.

Example: Ek trader ₹1,000 par ek stock kharidta hai, aur price ₹900 par gir jaata hai. Losses cut karne aur trade exit karne ke bajay, trader hold karta hai, yeh hope karte hue ki price rebound karega, sirf stock ko ₹850 par aur girte hue dekhne ke liye.

How to Overcome It: Strict stop-loss orders implement karna aur unhe follow karna traders ko losses manage karne mein madad kar sakta hai bina emotions ko take over karne ki ijazat diye. Ye samajhna ki small, controlled losses trading process ka part hain, loss aversion ke impact ko minimize karne ki key hai.

3. Overconfidence Bias

Overconfidence bias tab hota hai jab traders apni ability ko market movements predict karne ya apni analysis ki accuracy ko overestimate karte hain. Ye aksar excessive risks lene tak le jaata hai, jaise over-leveraging ya adequate research ke bina large trades karna, yeh sochte hue ki success guaranteed hai.

Example: Kuch successful trades ke baad, ek trader overconfident ho jaata hai aur agle trade par apni position size badha deta hai, yeh assume karte hue ki yeh bhi profitable hoga. Trade unke against jaata hai, jo larger-than-expected loss tak le jaata hai.

How to Overcome It: Traders ko ek consistent risk management strategy maintain karni chahiye, chahe past successes jo bhi ho. Position sizes impulsively badhane se bachein, aur hamesha thorough analysis karein pehle trade enter karne se pehle.

4. Anchoring Bias

Anchoring bias tab hota hai jab traders kisi specific piece of information par fixate ho jaate hain—jaise price jahan unhone initially ek asset kharida tha—aur usse ek reference point banate hain sabhi future decisions ke liye, chahe market conditions change ho jaaye.

Example: Ek trader ₹1,200 par ek stock kharidta hai, aur price ₹1,000 par gir jaata hai. Trader original ₹1,200 purchase price par anchor karta rehta hai aur sell karne se mana karta hai, chahe stock further decline ke signs dikha raha ho.

How to Overcome It: Traders ko current market conditions par focus karna chahiye na ki past prices ya data par fixate karna chahiye. Predefined exit points set karna jo technical analysis par based ho aur emotional attachment se specific prices ko combat karne mein madad kar sakta hai.

5. Herding Bias

Herding bias tab hota hai jab traders majority ke actions ko follow karte hain, yeh assume karte hue ki agar sabhi aur log buy ya sell kar rahe hain, toh unhe bhi wahi karna chahiye. Ye aksar impulsive decisions tak le jaata hai bina proper analysis ke, jo rally ke top par buy karne ya dip ke bottom par sell karne tak le jaata hai.

Example: Ek trader dekhta hai ki ek stock rapid popularity gain kar raha hai aur bina apna research kiye high price par kharid leta hai. Jald hi, stock price gir jaata hai, aur trader loss suffer karta hai.

How to Overcome It: Traders ko decisions solely market sentiment ya doosron ke actions par based nahi banane chahiye. Independent research karein aur ensure karein ki trades aapki strategy aur risk tolerance ke saath align ho.

6. Recency Bias

Recency bias woh tendency hai jahan recent events ya data ko zyada weightage diya jaata hai jabki historical trends ya long-term patterns ko overlook kiya jaata hai. Recency bias se prabhavit traders short-term price movements ya news par overreact kar sakte hain, latest information par rash decisions le kar.

Example: Ek trader dekhta hai ki ek stock pichle kuch dinon mein sharply rise kar gaya hai aur buy kar leta hai, yeh ignore karte hue ki stock overbought hai aur correction due hai.

How to Overcome It: Traders ko longer-term trends review karne chahiye aur technical analysis tools jaise moving averages ka use karna chahiye market ka broader view pane ke liye. Short-term price action par solely decisions lene se bachein.

7. The Disposition Effect

Disposition effect se murad hai wo tendency jahan traders winning trades ko bohot jaldi sell karte hain jabki losing trades ko bohot der tak hold karte hain. Ye isliye hota hai kyunki traders profits ko jaldi lock karna chahte hain taaki unhe lose karne ka risk na rahe, lekin wo losses accept karne se reluctant hote hain.

Example: Ek trader ek stock ko 5% gain hone ke baad sell kar deta hai, chahe market conditions suggest karte hain ki stock aur rise kar sakta hai. Wahi trader ek losing trade ko hold karta hai, yeh hope karte hue ki wo eventually recover karega.

How to Overcome It: Traders ko profit targets set karne chahiye aur trailing stops ka use karna chahiye taaki winning trades ko run karne diya ja sake jabki losing trades par losses cap kiye ja sakein. Ek disciplined approach develop karna exits aur entries dono par emotions ko prematurely act karne se rok sakta hai.

How to Overcome Psychological Biases in Trading

Jabki psychological biases ko completely eliminate nahi kiya ja sakta, inhe manage kiya ja sakta hai kuch practices aur mindsets adopt karke:

1. Develop Self-Awareness

Biases ko overcome karne ka pehla step unhe pehchanna hai. Regularly past trades par reflect karke aur behaviour patterns identify karke, traders apne biases ke liye zyada aware ban sakte hain aur unhe correct karne ke steps le sakte hain.

2. Create and Follow a Trading Plan

Ek well-defined trading plan emotions aur cognitive biases ke influence ko reduce karta hai. Entries, exits, position sizes, aur risk management ke liye clear rules hone se decisions logic aur strategy ke based par liye jaate hain, na ki emotional impulses par.

3. Keep a Trading Journal

Ek trading journal maintain karna traders ko unke decisions, emotions, aur outcomes track karne ki suvidha deta hai. Trades review karke, traders recurring biases identify kar sakte hain aur unhe mitigate karne ki strategies develop kar sakte hain. Journals valuable insights dete hain thought processes mein jo profitable aur losing trades dono tak le jaate hain.

4. Focus on Risk Management

Risk management tools, jaise stop-losses, position sizing, aur risk-reward ratios, traders ko psychological biases ke impact ko limit karne mein madad karte hain. Potential losses ko cap karke aur different scenarios ke liye plan karke, traders impulsive decisions lene ke liye kam prabhavit hote hain.

Example: Recognising and Overcoming Biases in Infosys

Maan lijiye ek trader Infosys ko ₹1,500 par kharidta hai, positive earnings reports ke basis par rise anticipate karte hue. Stock ₹1,600 par chadh jaata hai, lekin trader disposition effect ke karan jaldi sell kar deta hai, yeh darr se ki gains lose ho sakte hain. Is beech, trader doosre stock ko hold karta hai jo 10% gir chuka hai, loss aversion ke prabhav mein, aur loss cut karne se mana karta hai.

In biases ko pehchankar, trader apni strategy adjust kar sakta hai clear profit targets set karke aur stop-losses use karke losses cap karne ke liye. Ye emotions ko logic par override karne se rokta hai aur zyada consistent trading outcomes tak le jaata hai.

Common Mistakes in Trading Psychology

Yahan kuch common mistakes hain jo psychological biases se related hain jo traders ko avoid karni chahiye:

1. Ignoring Data that Contradicts Your View

Confirmation bias ko aapke trading decisions drive karne dena valuable data ignore karne tak le ja sakta hai jo suggest karta hai ki aapka trade galat direction mein ja raha hai.

2. Overconfidence After a Winning Streak

Overconfidence traders ko excessive risks lene ya apne trading plan ko abandon karne tak le ja sakta hai, yeh sochte hue ki wo losses ke liye immune hain.

3. Failing to Cut Losses Early

Loss aversion ke karan, traders aksar losing trades ko necessary se zyada der tak hold karte hain, yeh hope karte hue ki market turn around karega, jo aur bhi larger losses tak le ja sakta hai.

Conclusion

Psychological biases trading ka ek unavoidable part hain, lekin unhe pehchanna aur manage karna long-term success ke liye essential hai. Biases jaise confirmation bias, loss aversion, overconfidence, aur herding judgment ko cloud kar sakte hain aur irrational decisions tak le ja sakte hain. Self-awareness develop karke, ek solid trading plan se chipakte hue, aur risk management par focus karke, traders in biases ke impact ko reduce kar sakte hain aur zyada rational, disciplined decisions le sakte hain.

Agle chapter mein, hum Building a Trading Plan explore karenge, ek structured approach jo traders ko clear goals set karne, strategies define karne, aur risk manage karne aur trades effectively execute karne ke rules establish karne mein madad karta hai.