Home
Account Login
Not Logged In
☰
  • Trade Now
  • About Us
    • Why Choose Us
    • About Kotak Securities
    • About Kotak Group
    • Service
    • Media
    • Careers
    • Current Openings
  • Product
    • Asset Classes
      • Tax Free Bonds
      • Gold ETF
      • Stock Lending & Borrowing (SLBM)
    • Trading Tools
      • Website
      • KEAT PRO X
      • Kotak Stock Trader
      • Call and Trade
    • Account Types
      • Demat Account
      • Private Client Group (PCG)
      • 2 in 1 Account
      • Trinity Account
      • NRI Account
      • Foreign Investors (QFI)
    • Value Added Features
      • Margin Intraday Square off (MIS)
      • Stock Basket (smallcase)
      • Margin Trading Facility
      • Super Multiple
      • BNST
      • Portfolio Tracker
      • Capital gain report
      • Use Stocks as Margin
      • Knowledge Bank
      • Refer and Earn
  • Pricing
  • Research
    • Live Research Calls
      • Fundamental Call
      • Technical Call
      • Derivatives Call
      • SIP Call
      • Top Monthly Picks
      • Pick of the Week
    • Kotak Research Centre
    • Latest Research Reports
      • Stock Recommendations
      • Research webinars
    • Sample Research Reports
  • Help
    • Contact Us
    • Get Your Account Statements
    • Open an account
    • Demos
    • Forms
  • More
    • Startup Engagement
    • Kotak University
    • Franchisee
Home » Articles » Indian Markets Caught In The Trade War Crossfire

Articles

2014661830565536055253
How it helps?
  • Zero maintenance charges
  • Zero fees for demat account opening
  • Volume based brokerage
Reach Us
Learn the art of Investing

Read More >


  • Indian markets: Caught in the trade war crossfire

    Publish Date: 16th August, 2018


    The Indian equity markets are at risk due to strengthening US dollar and a full-blown trade between Washington and Beijing.

    The spike in the Dollar Index above 95 is likely to reduce the FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investors) inflow. That’s because the rupee underperformance against the dollar will stave off foreign investors from Indian markets.

    It won’t be surprising if the Dollar Index — an measure of the US dollar’s strength compared to a basket of foreign currencies — touches the 100-mark and further affect the Indian exchanges.

    Although SIP (systematic investment plans) inflow remains strong on the domestic front, it won’t be enough to offset the FPI dent.

    The Indian rupee’s performance could get worse: if the Dollar Index touches 100, the Indian rupee will plunge to record-low levels of Rs 73-74 against the US currency, which would alarm foreign investors even further.

    We had earlier estimated that the rupee wouldn’t touch the 70-mark against the US dollar. However, the contagion-risk in the merging market set off by Turkey’s Lira crisis and the trade war between China and the US has derailed our calculations.


    Nifty: In a spot of bother

    The Nifty will be able to withstand the global churn if it remains above the 200-day moving average (DMA), which is placed at 10,600. Falling below the 200-DMA would suggest that the market might turn bearish.

    However, there are concerns that the Nifty-50 rally from 10,500 onwards has lacked depth. That’s because though the Nifty has risen 9% in rupee terms, it has slid 1% in dollar terms. Similarly, the midcap index is down 17% and the small cap index is down by 21% (both in dollar terms).

    The Nifty rally has not been a team effort either. Five stocks — Reliance Industries, Infosys, TCS, HDFC Bank and ITC — led the Nifty rally by 800 points, while the top 10 contributing stocks accounted for 1,150 index points. This suggests that the record rally has been driven by the top-tier stocks. The other company stocks will need to contribute for the Nifty to hang on to the 10,600 mark.

    There is a lack of interest among investors too. The deliverable percentage — the transfer of stock ownership — has slid to a four-year low from peak 45% to 33%, which does not augur well for Indian markets.

    The top-heavy Nifty growth doesn’t seem sustainable. In fact, the Bloomberg consensus suggests that the overall earnings estimates for Nifty-50 has come down from 20% to 15%.

    Further, the earnings estimates of the midcap index is now between 9% and 18%, down from 25% at the start of this financial year.

    Emerging markets: Under pressure

    The steep correction in Chinese market due to the hostile trade war with the US has roiled the emerging market stocks.

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slumped by 20% on August 15 due to large-scale fresh selling, which can technically be considered as bear market.

    The Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) team believes that an escalation in trade war and post-facto tariffs can scuttle the Indian markets further.

    Plus, if the US government imposes “hard” sanctions on Iran, it would harm India as its oil exports would become more expensive. A higher crude oil bill would worsen the Indian current account deficit (CAD) and GDP data.

    In short, the continuing trade war can make a dent on the Indian stock markets.

    The political uncertainty in India, given this is a pre-election year, is another potential sinkhole for Indian equities.

    The problems don’t end there. This quarter’s earnings rally was largely due to last year’s low base set off by demonetization and GST. However, the low base effect will fade out and year-over-year comparisons will get tougher by next year, which will impact the Indian markets’ earnings performance in overall terms.

    To sum up, the global trade war and next year’s elections in India have ensured that the Indian markets are gripped in the gauntlet of headwinds, at least for the time being.

    (Note: The above note has been prepared based on inputs from media articles, Bloomberg and KIE strategy reports. This may or may not match with the views of groups companies.)


    Also read

    • How Turkish Lira slide impacts India
    • Secure financial freedom for your family
    • How US sanctions on Iran can impact India
    • Our stock recommendations
    • Our brokerage options


    Click here to go back








Stock Market Sectors :        A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | L | M | N | O | P | R | S | T | V | W |

About Us

  • • Branch Locator
  • • About Kotak Securities
  • • Awards and Accolades
  • • About Kotak Group
  • • Technology
  • • Strong Research
  • • Customer Support Chat
  • • Brokerage Charges

Asset Classes

  • • Equity Trading
  • • Derivative Trading
  • • Mutual Fund Investment
  • • IPO
  • • Gold Funds
  • • Currency Derivatives
  • • Fixed Deposits & Tax Free Bonds
  • • Debentures

Derivatives Market

  • • Most Active Contracts
  • • Gainers
  • • Losers
  • • Top Volume Traded
  • • Top Value Traded
  • • Most Active Put
  • • Most Active Call
  • • Open Interest
  • • Highest in Premium
  • • Put Call Ratio

Investment Knowledge Bank

  • • Share Market Basics
  • • What is Demat Account
  • • What are Derivatives?
  • • What are Futures?
  • • What are Options?
  • • What are Mutual Funds?
  • • Basics of Financial Planning
  • • Calculators
  • • Videos
  • • Meaningful Minutes

Trading Tools & Research Reports

  • • KEAT PRO X
  • • Kotak Stock Trader APP
  • • Fastlane
  • • Xtralite
  • • Dealer assisted trading
  • • Call and Trade
  • • Investors Research
  • • Trader Research
  • • Mutual Fund Research
  • • Fundamental Analysis Reports
  • • Technical Analysis Reports
  • • Derivative Reports
  • • Currency Derivative Reports

Account Types & Value Added Services

  • • Demat Account
  • • 2 in 1 Account
  • • Trinity Account (3-in-1 Account)
  • • Linked Account
  • • NRI Account
  • • PMS
  • • Margin Trading
  • • BNST
  • • TradeSmart Store
  • • SMS Alerts
  • • AMO

Equity Market

  • • Share Market Live
  • • Gainer
  • • Loser
  • • Most Active Stocks
  • • Volume Buzzer
  • • 52Wk High
  • • 52Wk Low
  • • All Market News
  • • Bullion News
  • • Economy General
  • • Corporate Actions
  • • Other News
CUSTOMER CARE Chat with us
77389 88888WhatsApp Chat
(Add city STD code while calling from Mobile)

TIME:
Customer Service:- Mon to Fri – 9.00 AM TO 6.00 PM
Call and Trade:- Mon to Fri – 8.30 AM TO 5.30 PM

For Call & Trade, dial 080 4725 3255
Write to us at service.securities@kotak.com for Trading Account-related queries and ks.demat@kotak.com for Demat Account-related queries

Connect with us

No need to issue cheques by investors while subscribing to IPO. Just write the bank account number and sign in the application form to authorise your bank to make payment in case of allotment. No worries for refund as the money remains in investor's account.

KYC is one time exercise while dealing in securities markets - once KYC is done through a SEBI registered intermediary (broker, DP, Mutual Fund etc.), you need not undergo the same process again when you approach another intermediary. Attention Investors Prevent Unauthorized Transactions in your demat / trading account --> Update your Mobile Number/ email Id with your stock broker / Depository Participant. Receive information of your transactions directly from Exchanges on your mobile / email at the end of day and alerts on your registered mobile for all debits and other important transactions in your demat account directly from NSDL/ CDSL on the same day." - Issued in the interest of investors. Circular No.: NSDL/POLICY/2014/0094, NSE/INSP/27436, BSE - 20140901-21

Kindly note that as per NSE circulars nos: NSE/INVG/36333 dated November 17, 2017, NSE/INVG/37765 dated May 15.2018 and BSE circular nos: 20171117-18 dated November 17, 2017, 20180515-39 dated May 15.2018, trading in securities in which unsolicited messages are being circulated is restricted. The list of such stocks are available on the website of NSE & BSE. In case of any queries, request you to kindly get in touch with Customer Service on 18002099191/9292

Kotak securities Ltd. having composite licence no.CA0268 is a Corporate Agent of Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company Limited and Kotak Mahindra General Insurance Company Limited. We have taken reasonable measures to protect security and confidentiality of the Customer information.

The Stock Exchange, Mumbai is not in any manner answerable, responsible or liable to any person or persons for any acts of omission or commission, errors, mistakes and/or violation, actual or perceived, by us or our partners, agents, associates etc., of any of the Rules, Regulations, Bye-laws of the Stock Exchange, Mumbai, SEBI Act or any other laws in force from time to time.
The Stock Exchange, Mumbai is not answerable, responsible or liable for any information on this Website or for any services rendered by our employees, our servants, and us.

Please do not share your online trading password with anyone as this could weaken the security of your account and lead to unauthorized trades or losses. This cautionary note is as per Exchange circular dated 15th May, 2020.

Note: NSDL and CDSL have mapped Unique Client Codes (UCC) to demat accounts based on PAN, refer NSDL and CDSL circulars. Format for linking/delinking the UCC: NSDL: link | CDSL: link.

Clients are required to keep all their account related information up-to-date including details like email id, mobile number, address, bank details, demat details, income details etc. which will help the client to timely receive any information and to avail the various facilities relating to the Trading and Demat account. To update the details, client may get in touch with our designated customer service desk or approach the branch for assistance.

Investor Awareness regarding the revised guidelines on margin collection:-
Attention Investors :

1. Stock Brokers can accept securities as margin from clients only by way of pledge in the depository system w.e.f. September 1, 2020.
2. Update your mobile number & email Id with your stock broker/depository participant and receive OTP directly from depository on your email id and/or mobile number to create pledge.
3. Pay 20% upfront margin of the transaction value to trade in cash market segment.
4. Investors may please refer to the Exchange's Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) issued vide circular reference NSE/INSP/45191 dated July 31, 2020, notice no. 20200731-7 dated July 31, 2020 and NSE/INSP/45534 dated August 31, 2020, notice no. 20200831-45 dated August 31, 2020 and other guidelines issued from time to time in this regard.
5. Check your Securities /MF/ Bonds in the consolidated account statement issued by NSDL/CDSL every month.
.......... Issued in the interest of Investors

Clients are hereby cautioned not to rely on unsolicited stock tips / investment advice circulated through bulk SMS, websites and social media platforms. Kindly exercise appropriate due diligence before dealing in the securities market.

Requirement of obtaining consent through OTP has been waived for off market transfer reason code “Implementation of Government / Regulatory Direction / Orders” Consent through OTP would continue to be required for all other reasons for any off-market transfers. Refer NSDL circular.

Covid-19 impact to clients:-
1. Applicable to clients on whose email id contract notes and other statements get bounced or who have opted for Physical contract notes/ other statements or Digital and Physical contract notes/ other statements :Due to the nationwide lockdown, we are unable send physical contract notes and other statements. To view them, log into www.kotaksecurities.com
2. Kindly update your email id with us to receive contract notes/various statements electronically to avoid any further inconvenience.
3. We are unable to issue the running account settlement payouts through cheque due to the lockdown. We request you to update your Bank account details to facilitate direct transfer to your linked bank account. You may approach our designated customer service desk or your branch to know the Bank details updation procedure.
4. Exchange advisory: Investors are advised to exercise caution while taking investment decisions in these unpredictable times. Clients are also encouraged to keep track of the underlying physical as well as international commodity markets. Clients are advised to undertake transactions after understanding the nature of the contractual relationship into which they are entering and the extent of its exposure to risk. Clients are further advised to follow sound risk management practices and not to be carried away by unfounded rumors, tips etc.

Filling complaints on SCORES- Easy & Quick
a. Register on SCORES portal  |  b. Mandatory details for filling complaints on SCORES  i. Name, PAN, Address, Mobile Number, E-mail ID  |  c. Benefits:  i. Effective Communication  ii. Speedy redressal of the grievances

Charges for Other Services  |  Disclaimer  |  Sitemap  |  Privacy & Security  |  256 Bit Encryption  |  BSE  |  NSE  |  MSE  |  MCX  |  SEBI  |  SCORES  |  Anti Money Laundering Measures  |  Important Policies  |  Dos & Donts  |  National Pension System  |  List of GST Registration Number

© 2005 Kotak Securities Limited.

Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.: +22 67132430.
Correspondence Address: Infinity IT Park, Bldg. No 21, Opp. Film City Road, A K Vaidya Marg, Malad (East), Mumbai 400097. Telephone No: 42856825.

CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051. SEBI Registration No: INZ000200137(Member of NSE, BSE, MSE, MCX & NCDEX), AMFI ARN 0164, PMS INP000000258 and Research Analyst INH000000586.

NSDL/CDSL: IN-DP-NSDL-23-97

New To share Market?

Open Your Account Today!

New Customer?

Hurry! Sign up for Free Intraday Trading now

BROKERAGE FREE

on intraday trades

AVAIL THE OFFER NOW

NO ACCOUNT OPENING CHARGES



Submit

Please Note

That by submitting the above mentioned details, you are authorising Kotak Securities & its sub-brokers & agents to call you and send promotional communication even though you may be registered under DNC.

Open An Account