• Products
    Investment Suite
    Stocks
    Mutual Funds
    Future and Options
    IPO
    Exchange Traded Funds
    Commodity
    Stockcase (Stock Baskets)
    Currency
    Non Convertible Debentures
    Sovereign Gold Bond
    Exclusive
    NRI Account
    Corporate/HUF Trading Account
    Private Client Group
    Features
    SipIt
    MTF
    Investment Suite
    Exclusive
    Features
  • Platform
    Trading Platforms
    Kotak Neo App & Web
    Nest Trading Terminal
    NEO Trade APIs
    Features and Tools
    MTF
    Securities Accepted as Collateral
    Margin Requirements
    Equity Screeners
    Payoff Analyzer
    Calculators
    SIP Calculator
    Lumpsum Calculator
    Brokerage Calculator
    Margin Calculator
    MTF Calculator
    SWP Calculator
    CAGR Calculator
    Simple Interest Calculator
    ELSS Calculator
    Step up SIP Calculator
    All Calculators
    Trading Platforms
    Features and Tools
    Calculators
  • Pricing
  • Research
    Research Calls
    Long Term calls
    Short Term calls
    Intraday calls
    Derivatives calls
    Pick of the week
    Top Monthly Picks
    Research Reports
    Fundamental Research Report
    Technical Research Report
    Derivative Research Report
    Research Calls
    Research Reports
  • Market
    Market Movers
    Share Market Today
    Top Gainers
    Top Losers
    Stocks
    Large Cap
    Mid Cap
    Small Cap
    Indices
    Nifty 50
    Bank Nifty
    FinNifty
    Nifty Midcap India
    VIX
    All Indian Indices
    Mutual Funds
    SBI Mutual Funds
    HDFC Mutual Funds
    Axis Mutual Funds
    ICICI Prudential Mutual Funds
    Nippon India Mutual Funds
    All AMC's
    IPO
    Upcoming IPO
    Current IPO
    Closed IPO
    Recently Listed IPO
    Market Movers
    Stocks
    Indices
    Mutual Funds
    IPO
  • Learn
    Stockshaala
    Basics of Stock Market
    Introduction to Fundamental Analysis
    Introduction to Technical Analysis
    Derivatives, Risk management & Option Trading Strategies
    Personal Finance
    Resource
    Market Ready
    Kotak Insights
    Infographic
    Podcast
    Webinars
    Youtube Channel
    Quarterly Results
    Investing Guide
    Demat Account
    Trading Account
    Share Market
    Intraday Trading
    IPO
    Mutual Funds
    Events
    Budget 2025
    Muhurat Trading
    Share Market Holiday
    Market Outlook 2025
    Stockshaala
    Resource
    Investing Guide
    Events
  • Partner
    Business Associates
    Kotak Connect Plus
    Startup connect
  • Support
    FAQs
    Circulars
    Bulletins
    Contact Us
    Forms Download
    Get your Statement

Jobs As Memory

  •  3m
  •  1,045
  • 20 Apr 2023

Will people buy as many cars as before? How much office space becomes surplus as office-goers work from home? How will that impact construction? T N Ninan raises some questions the future invites

When people look back at Covid-19, what they remember most of all might be the loss of jobs on a scale unimagined since the Great Depression. That earlier crisis gave birth to such classics as John Steinbeck’s The Grapes of Wrath and Studs Terkel’s Hard Times: An Oral History of the Great Depression. Steinbeck wrote his Nobel-prize winning fiction with the flavour of non-fiction, so Stalin banned the book because (it is said) he did not want Russians to see that even a poor American family could afford a car (at the time a Ford Model T cost barely four months’ pay for an average family).

So what is the literature that will emerge now from Russia, where in all regions other than Moscow 78 per cent of employees were not working at the end of April, according to the minister for economic development (so quoted in the Financial Times). Economic activity and tax revenue were both down more than 30 per cent. In the US, meanwhile, joblessness has neared 15 per cent, not far from when Grapes got published in 1939. India’s is higher still, at over 27 per cent — that means 122 million people, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. Of those, 91 million lost their jobs in April, most of them small traders and daily wage labourers. Our migrants’ oral histories are waiting for an Indian Studs Terkel with a tape recorder. At least the Joad family in Grapes had a car, and did not have to walk hundreds of kilometres on Route 66, or drop exhausted on rail tracks.

Elsewhere, in China, sharp change was already under way before Covid: 10 million industrial jobs were lost in 2019, following on the loss of 20 million in 2015-18, thereby bringing the original 100 million industrial jobs down to 70 million. As the global economy shrinks, and country after country is tempted to build a “Great Wall against China”, more losses of industrial jobs are certain. In a dangerous response, some of India’s chief ministers seem to think they can attract those jobs by suspending most labour laws, or by treating migrants as captives. They are inviting new anarchies on top of that wrought by Covid-19.

The future invites many questions. Will people buy as many cars as before if more office-goers are working from home? How much existing office space in commercial buildings will become surplus, and what will that mean for the construction industry — one of the big three providers of employment? In any case, how many of those migrants will willingly return to slum life and risk another life-and-death experience? Will employers finally be forced to offer better terms in order to get them back? That’s not what chief ministers are asking them to do. In any case, millions who now think of jobs only as part of memory have withdrawn from the workforce. Economy-wide productivity will take a hit because of a smaller workforce in a growing population. Demographic dividend, anyone?

What about leaders in the crisis? Politicians in power who gained popularity during the initial weeks of Covid-19 are beginning to see their numbers slip as the pandemic grows. Donald Trump, who used to boast of his ratings, now trails Joe Biden in the polls by a large margin. Vladimir Putin has the lowest ratings in his 20 years at the helm of Russia. Xi Jinping has faced unprecedented flak, both within China and internationally. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, who like Mr Trump was initially dismissive of the pandemic, has lost most of his business support and is left with only die-hard fans who approve of his autocratic ways. And in the UK Boris Johnson, who changed course midway on how to deal with the pandemic, is under fire for the highest number of Covid-caused deaths in Europe. But they are skilful populists, all, and might well survive.

Fortunately, some heroes have emerged. K K Shailaja, health minister in Kerala (with four deaths in all), is in good company with London Breed, mayor of San Francisco (31 deaths so far, compared with more than 10,000 in New York City), and New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern (21 deaths) — women, all, who moved early and acted decisively.

Did you enjoy this article?

0 people liked this article.

What could we have done to make this article better?

Read Full Article >
Open Your Demat Account Now!
+91 -

Open Your Demat Account Now!
+91 -