The retail division of the Tata Group, Trent, outperformed investors expectations in 2023 and 2024. The stock has been a fantastic performer, bringing close to 496% returns in the past five years, leading up to the end of 2025.
However, as of 2025, the stock is down almost 50% from the peak.
Does the quick change make it a good deal right now, or do the undefined flaws mean that Trent will have to deal with worse problems down the road?
Trent’s latest quarterly results showed standalone product sales up 17% year-on-year and first-half FY26 revenue rising 19%. Still, this growth was the slowest in many quarters for the company. Brokers have lowered growth and earnings forecasts for FY26–28 by 3-7%, citing weaker same-store sales and muted demand.
Margins were hit. In Trent Limited’s budget brand Zudio, each store earned less money per square foot, and profits per square foot also fell.
More competition and weaker customer spending made the business perform worse than before.
Subsidiary businesses did not help either. The cash-and-carry business saw a 23% revenue drop year-on-year, and profits from that vertical shrank significantly.
Given these headwinds, slower top-line growth, margin pressure, and weak subsidiary performance, the sharp decline in share price reflects a material re-rating by the market.
Over the last 5 years, Trent delivered robust growth: median sales growth around 22%, return on equity near 13%, and sustained working-capital efficiency.
Its fundamental formats, Westside and Zudio, are well known. Zudio, in particular, had proposed a value-fashion offer and had grown store count at an unsustainable rate before the recent slowdown. The company is still growing, which indicates long-term ambition, as it continues to add retail space and expand its formats.
India’s retail market continues to grow structurally. Rising disposable incomes, ongoing urbanisation, and changing consumer behaviour keep demand for branded and value fashion alive. If Trent can stabilise growth and adapt to changing preferences, its brand strength and past execution record give it a runway to bounce back.
First, track same-store sales growth. As long as Trent demonstrates improvement on this front, particularly in value fashion (Zudio) and core apparel (Westside), it might be an indication of the re-emerging consumer demand and confidence.
Second, the trend in watch margins and the overall cost structure matters. Profitability will depend on input costs, discounting pressure, and competition. The stock may receive valuation support if margins improve, whether through a better product mix or lower costs.
Third, pay attention to subsidiary and non-apparel business performance, such as cash-and-carry, groceries, and newer formats. Diversified revenue streams can cushion retail-segment volatility.
Fourth, keep an eye on industry and macro factors, inflation, interest rates, disposable income trends, and consumer sentiment. If macroeconomic pressure eases, retail demand could pick up again.
Finally, observe brokerage estimates and market multiples. Since some brokers' goal prices have been lowered by a large amount, any sign of stability or growth outperformance could cause multiple re-ratings to go up. Will Trent benefit from structural retail growth, revived demand, and an improved margin profile, or will weak consumer spending and rising competition keep earnings under pressure? The next few quarters should clarify whether this dip is a value entry or a deeper warning sign.
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