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Home » Research » Kotak Research Center » Stock Recommendation Vedanta Buy Target Price 330
2014661830565536055253
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  • Stock Recommendation | Vedanta - BUY - Target price : 330

    Publish date: NOVEMBER 01, 2018

    Weak quarter; expect a better 2H.VEDL's earnings were weak due to (1) lower volumes in zinc, and (2) high production costs in zinc and aluminum operations. The company's zinc volume growth is expected to increase from 2HFY19 onwards led by commissioning of mines in India/RSA in 2Q/3QFY19-we expect strong increase in zinc earnings from 2H. Aluminum EBITDA was weak largely due to limited coal availability and high alumina costs-while near-term earnings will be subdued, it is unlikely that the alumina-price-index can sustain at record historical highs for long. We cut our TP to Rs330 (from Rs360 earlier) and maintain BUY rating. Stock in inexpensive at 4X FY2020E EV/EBITDA.


    2QFY19-earnings weak on lower zinc volumes, high production cost for zinc and aluminum

    VEDL's 2QFY19 earnings were lower than our estimates-company reported EBITDA of Rs52 bn (-8% yoy, -17% qoq) and net-income of Rs11.4 bn (-44% yoy, -26% qoq) against our estimate of Rs57.6 bn & Rs13.6 bn, respectively. Earnings were weak due to:
    ▶ Lower aluminum earnings. Aluminum EBITDA declined 68% qoq to Rs4 bn (-13% yoy) due to 9% qoq increase in costs to Rs141,300/ton due to higher alumina and power costs. EBITDA/ton declined to US$144/ton (US$424/ton in 1QFY19) due to higher costs and lower prices. Aluminum volumes increased 6% qoq to 494,000 tons (+29% yoy).
    ▶ Decline in zinc earnings. EBITDA at Zinc International declined 81% qoq to Rs160 mn (-96% yoy) due to (1) lower volumes of 28,000 tons (-35% yoy) and increase in production costs to US$2,428/ton (+65% yoy). HZ reported a muted quarter as well with 14% qoq decline in EBITDA to 23.3 bn (-23% yoy) due to 6% qoq decline in zinc volumes and lower prices.


    Zinc volumes to increase from 2HFY19 led by commissioning of new mine projects

    We expect strong improvement in VEDL's zinc earnings in 2HFY19 led by (1) ramp-up of Gamsberg project-VEDL expects 75 kt of volumes in 2HFY19 at low production cost of US$800-1,000/ton, (2) increase in Skorpion, BMM volumes at Zinc International as 1H was impacted by higher waste mining, low grades-this should aid in significant reduction in costs too. Management expects close to 100 kt of volumes in 2H from these mines at production costs 500,000 tons (444,000 tons in 1HFY19) led by commissioning of production shafts at Rampura Agucha and SK mines and new mills.


    Maintain BUY and revise target price to Rs330; declares dividend of Rs17/share

    VEDL's 2QFY19 aluminum earnings reflects the sharp earnings squeeze faced by non-integrated smelters globally due to the rise in the alumina-price-index to >25% (versus long term 16- 18%). At spot aluminum-alumina spreads, most of the non-integrated smelters are burning cash-we expect this to normalize once Alunorte refinery and a few other projects restart. We cut our EBITDA estimate by 2-6% for FY2019-2021E and target price to Rs330 (from Rs360 earlier). Maintain BUY.


    Exhibit

    Changes in our estimates
    Exhibit 8 highlights key changes in our estimates, here's a summary:
    ▶ We cut our aluminum EBITDA/ton estimate to US$220/ton, US$360/ton and US$390/ton for FY2019E, FY2020E and FY2021E from US$220/ton, US$410/ton and US$430/ton, respectively. The lower EBITDA/ton reflects higher alumina prices-though we expect alumina prices to decline from >25% in FY2019E to ~19% in FY2020-21E. We highlight that a large number of non-integrated aluminum smelters globally will be incurring cash losses at API index of >20%.
    ▶ We incorporate our revised estimates of Hindustan Zinc in Vedanta model-see our note dated October 23, 2018.
    ▶ In Zinc International, we have adjusted our volumes, costs for FY2019-21E.
    ▶ We have factored in (1) lower O&G volumes versus earlier assumptions given indicated delay in commencement of growth projects, and (2) higher crude prices.
    These changes result in 3-6% cuts in our EBITDA estimates to Rs273 bn, Rs331 bn and Rs341 bn for FY2019E, FY2020E and FY2021E. Our EPS estimate is cut by 11-18% for FY2019-20E due to higher interest costs, depreciation charges beside lower EBITDA. We estimate EPS of Rs22.5, Rs33.1 and Rs34.1 for FY2019E, FY2020E and FY2021E.

    Other highlights of 2QFY19 results, earnings call
    The performance across businesses was as follows:
    ▶ Oil & gas-lower-than-expected contribution due to decline in volumes. Oil and gas revenues and EBITDA increased 8-9% qoq to Rs34.8 bn and Rs20.3 bn respectively, albeit 6-7% below our estimates led by surprising 5% qoq decline in net production volumes to 118.7 kb/d, led by lower production from Rajasthan block; crude realizations were higher at US$69.5/bbl versus US$67.2/bbl in the previous quarter, at a lower discount of US$5.7/bbl to Dated Brent crude. Oil and gas EBIT increased to Rs14.3 bn in 2QFY19 from Rs12.8 bn in the previous quarter. The management indicated delays in award of projects in Rajasthan block, while sharply cutting its gross production guidance to 200-220 kboe/d in 2HFY19 versus earlier guidance of 220-250 kboe/d in FY2019.
    The government has granted ten-year extension for the PSC of Rajasthan block (RJ-ON- 90/1) effective from May 2020 onwards, under the existing policy framework, which mandates an increase in the government's share of profit petroleum by 10%; the matter remains sub-judice in the court, however, the company has sought the extension without any change in fiscal terms.
    ▶ Decline in aluminum earnings due to cost increases, lower prices. VEDL's aluminum EBITDA declined 68% qoq to Rs4 bn (-13% yoy, KIE: Rs6 bn) due to an increase in production costs which increased by 9% qoq to Rs141,300/ton due to higher alumina, power costs. Aluminum volumes increased 6% qoq to 495,000 tons (+29% yoy) led by ramp-up of Jharsuguda II smelter. EBITDA/ton declined to US$144/ton (from US$424/ton in 1QFY19) due to a combination of increased costs and lower prices. Management expects FY2019E production at 2 mn tons and costs at U$1,950-2,000/ton (US$1,978/ton in 1HFY19).
    ▶ Zinc International-lower volumes, higher costs. EBITDA at Zinc International declined 81% qoq to Rs160 mn (-96% yoy) due to (1) lower production volumes of 28,000 tons (-35% yoy, +12% qoq) and increase in production costs to US$2,428/ton (+65% yoy, +3% qoq). The management expects an improvement in 2HFY19 with full year production of 150 kt (53 kt in 1HFY19) and production cost at US$1,850-1,950/ton (US$2,393/ton in 1HFY19). Gamsberg production is not yet reflected in financials- management expects FY2019E production from Gamsberg at 75 kt and production costs at US$800-1,000/ton. The trial run of concentrator at this project commenced in September 2018. Management expects FY2020E production from Gamsberg at 250 kt.
    ▶ Hindustan Zinc-EBITDA declines 14% qoq. Hindustan Zinc's EBITDA declined 14% qoq to Rs23.3 bn (-23% yoy). The sequential decline in earnings was due to (1) 6% qoq decline in zinc sales volumes to 160,000 tons (-17% yoy), and (2) lower zinc realizations (- 13% qoq), lead realizations (-7% qoq) and silver realizations (-4% qoq). The company's mined metal volumes increased 9% qoq to 232,000 tons (+6% yoy) led by ramp-up of underground mines. Lower refined zinc output (162,000 tons, -6% qoq, -16% yoy) was due to a mismatch in zinc mined metal availability as mined production ramped up towards the latter half of the quarter. Lead production increased 17% qoq to 49,000 tons while silver production increased 25% qoq to 172 tons-increase in silver production was led by higher lead metal processing and increased ore production from SK mines (which has rich silver ore grades).
    Production costs increased 14% yoy to Rs72,449/ton (US$1,034/ton, +5% yoy) due to a combination of lower volumes, high fuel costs and wage costs.
    ▶ Power-weak earnings. Power EBITDA declined by 11% qoq to Rs3.8 bn (+3% yoy) due to (1) lower generation at Balco (600 MW) and Jharsuguda (600 MW) power plant, and (2) increase in generation costs. The lower generation, higher cost was largely due to limited coal availability. Plant availability at Talwandi Sabo improved to 94% in 2QFY19 from 91% in 1QFY19.
    ▶ Iron-ore (EBITDA at Rs980 mn). Iron-ore EBITDA declined 40% qoq to Rs980 mn due to lower volumes. Sales volumes declined to 0.4 mn tons (1.4 mn tons in 1QFY19, 0.7 mn tons in 2QFY18) due to closure of Goa mining operations and monsoons. Electrosteel reported EBITDA of Rs1.7 bn (Rs2.1 bn in 1QFY19) due to lower steel prices.
    Other points
    ▶ Net-debt and FCF. VEDL's net-debt declined to Rs264 bn in September 2018 from Rs299 bn in June 30, 2018 (this excludes buyer's credit of US$700-750 mn). The company earned operating cash flows of Rs38.9 bn during the quarter while cash flows were also aided by working capital release of Rs23 bn. The capex for the quarter was Rs25.5 bn.
    VEDL expects FY2019E capex at US$1.5 bn largely towards oil & gas and zinc operations. The capex in FY2020E can increase to US$1.8 bn due to US$600 mn expected investment for Electrosteel Steels expansion and Lajigarh refinery expansion to 4 mtpa.
    ▶ The company declared interim dividend of Rs17/share. The record date for payment will be November 10, 2018.



    Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

    Definitions of ratings

    BUY - We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
    ADD - We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
    REDUCE - We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
    SELL - We expect this stock to deliver

    Our target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.


    Other definitions

    Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst's overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.


    Other ratings/identifiers

    NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
    CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.
    NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.
    RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
    NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.



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Kindly note that as per NSE circulars nos: NSE/INVG/36333 dated November 17, 2017, NSE/INVG/37765 dated May 15.2018 and BSE circular nos: 20171117-18 dated November 17, 2017, 20180515-39 dated May 15.2018, trading in securities in which unsolicited messages are being circulated is restricted. The list of such stocks are available on the website of NSE & BSE. In case of any queries, request you to kindly get in touch with Customer Service on 18002099191/9292

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The Stock Exchange, Mumbai is not in any manner answerable, responsible or liable to any person or persons for any acts of omission or commission, errors, mistakes and/or violation, actual or perceived, by us or our partners, agents, associates etc., of any of the Rules, Regulations, Bye-laws of the Stock Exchange, Mumbai, SEBI Act or any other laws in force from time to time.
The Stock Exchange, Mumbai is not answerable, responsible or liable for any information on this Website or for any services rendered by our employees, our servants, and us.

Please do not share your online trading password with anyone as this could weaken the security of your account and lead to unauthorized trades or losses. This cautionary note is as per Exchange circular dated 15th May, 2020.

Note: NSDL and CDSL have mapped Unique Client Codes (UCC) to demat accounts based on PAN, refer NSDL and CDSL circulars. Format for linking/delinking the UCC: NSDL: link | CDSL: link.

Clients are required to keep all their account related information up-to-date including details like email id, mobile number, address, bank details, demat details, income details etc. which will help the client to timely receive any information and to avail the various facilities relating to the Trading and Demat account. To update the details, client may get in touch with our designated customer service desk or approach the branch for assistance.

Investor Awareness regarding the revised guidelines on margin collection:-
Attention Investors :

1. Stock Brokers can accept securities as margin from clients only by way of pledge in the depository system w.e.f. September 1, 2020.
2. Update your mobile number & email Id with your stock broker/depository participant and receive OTP directly from depository on your email id and/or mobile number to create pledge.
3. Pay 20% upfront margin of the transaction value to trade in cash market segment.
4. Investors may please refer to the Exchange's Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) issued vide circular reference NSE/INSP/45191 dated July 31, 2020, notice no. 20200731-7 dated July 31, 2020 and NSE/INSP/45534 dated August 31, 2020, notice no. 20200831-45 dated August 31, 2020 and other guidelines issued from time to time in this regard.
5. Check your Securities /MF/ Bonds in the consolidated account statement issued by NSDL/CDSL every month.
.......... Issued in the interest of Investors

Clients are hereby cautioned not to rely on unsolicited stock tips / investment advice circulated through bulk SMS, websites and social media platforms. Kindly exercise appropriate due diligence before dealing in the securities market.

Requirement of obtaining consent through OTP has been waived for off market transfer reason code “Implementation of Government / Regulatory Direction / Orders” Consent through OTP would continue to be required for all other reasons for any off-market transfers. Refer NSDL circular.

Covid-19 impact to clients:-
1. Applicable to clients on whose email id contract notes and other statements get bounced or who have opted for Physical contract notes/ other statements or Digital and Physical contract notes/ other statements :Due to the nationwide lockdown, we are unable send physical contract notes and other statements. To view them, log into www.kotaksecurities.com
2. Kindly update your email id with us to receive contract notes/various statements electronically to avoid any further inconvenience.
3. We are unable to issue the running account settlement payouts through cheque due to the lockdown. We request you to update your Bank account details to facilitate direct transfer to your linked bank account. You may approach our designated customer service desk or your branch to know the Bank details updation procedure.
4. Exchange advisory: Investors are advised to exercise caution while taking investment decisions in these unpredictable times. Clients are also encouraged to keep track of the underlying physical as well as international commodity markets. Clients are advised to undertake transactions after understanding the nature of the contractual relationship into which they are entering and the extent of its exposure to risk. Clients are further advised to follow sound risk management practices and not to be carried away by unfounded rumors, tips etc.

Filling complaints on SCORES- Easy & Quick
a. Register on SCORES portal  |  b. Mandatory details for filling complaints on SCORES  i. Name, PAN, Address, Mobile Number, E-mail ID  |  c. Benefits:  i. Effective Communication  ii. Speedy redressal of the grievances

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© 2005 Kotak Securities Limited.

Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.: +22 67132430.
Correspondence Address: Infinity IT Park, Bldg. No 21, Opp. Film City Road, A K Vaidya Marg, Malad (East), Mumbai 400097. Telephone No: 42856825.

CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051. SEBI Registration No: INZ000200137(Member of NSE, BSE, MSE, MCX & NCDEX), AMFI ARN 0164, PMS INP000000258 and Research Analyst INH000000586.

NSDL/CDSL: IN-DP-NSDL-23-97

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