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  • Stock Recommendation | TALBROS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED (TBA) – BUY – Target Price : 400

    Publish date: NOVEMBER 15, 2018

    TBA reported robust growth in revenue, EBITDA and net profit. Volume growth coupled with new order execution translated into strong growth for the company. Overall results came in ahead of our estimates.

    Consolidated revenue for the company grew by 27% YoY, to Rs1,283mn. Despite input cost pressure, the company reported YoY and QoQ improvement in EBITDA margin. Led by 49% increase in EBITDA, TBA reported 60% YoY growth in adjusted net profit. Consolidated revenue only includes standalone gasket and forging revenue; as for joint venture, under IndAS, the net profit is taken in share of profit from JV/associates.


    Company’s revenue growth looks strong with contribution from all businesses/joint ventures. In the gasket business, increasing auto sales coupled with BSVI is expected to drive revenue. In the forging business and Marelli Talbros Chassis Systems (MMT) JV, various order wins is expected to translate into high revenue growth. EBITDA margin is expected to improve on the back of cost control measures and operating leverage benefits. At the CMP, the stock is available at a PE of 8.3x on FY20E earnings. We maintain BUY rating on the stock with revised price target of Rs400 (earlier Rs396).


    TBA’s consolidated revenue in the quarter stood at Rs1,283mn, 27% higher over 2QFY18. Consolidated revenue only includes standalone gasket and forging revenue; as for joint venture, under IndAS, the net profit is taken in share of profit from JV/associates. Standalone gasket business revenue in 2QFY19 stood at Rs852mn. In the forgings business, revenue grew by 58% YoY to Rs460mn, led by execution of orders won by the company in recent past. During the quarter under review, commercial vehicle and two wheeler vehicle production grew by 36% and 10% respectively. In 1HFY19, 64% of domestic revenues came from the commercial vehicle and two wheeler segment.

    Consolidated EBITDA in 2QFY19 came in at Rs147mn, 49% growth over same quarter last year. Growth in EBITDA came in from 27% revenue growth and 164bps expansion in EBITDA margin. Gross margins increased YoY on account of price hikes taken with the OEM’s, improved internal efficiencies and lower 2QFY18 base. Consolidated adjusted PAT in the quarter grew by 60% YoY to Rs76mn. Share of profit from JV’s increased YoY from Rs22mn to Rs30mn.

    Nippon Leakless Talbros (NLT) JV revenue in the quarter increased 8% YoY to Rs338mn (TBA’s share is 40% in the JV). EBITDA declined by 4% YoY and PAT grew by 4% YoY. NLT JV revenue JV comes primarily from selling gasket to two wheeler segment with Hero Moto Corp and Honda Motorcycle and Scooters India as their key customers.

    Marelli Talbros Chassis Systems (MMT) JV reported 40% YoY growth in revenue led by volume growth at Maruti Suzuki and new business wins. EBITDA doubled YoY to Rs38mn for the JV (includes other income) and PAT for the JV grew by 132% YoY.

    Talbros Marugo Rubber (TMR) revenue grew by 40% YoY, supported by Japanese partner buy back of JV’s product. EBITDA for this JV increased by 71% YoY and the JV posted net profit of Rs2mn as against loss of Rs2mn in 2QFY18.


    In the gasket business, the company remains the market leader with ~40 % market share. Management believes that investment in technology is giving the company edge over competitors. In this business, the company is working on BSVI compliant engine gasket. With BSVI, the content per vehicle of gasket is expected to increase by ~25-30% for the CV segment. In exports, the company expects growth to come from various orders won by the company (order win to supply has a lead time of 18-24 months). Company is working on reducing import dependence of raw material by working on post coated gasket. In heat shield the company won an order of USD2mn from a European OEM and the same is expected to start getting executed in CY19.

    Forging business has been growing at a high rate in the past few quarters and we expect strong order book to translate into robust revenue growth in 2HFY19 and FY20. Company recently installed the 500 ton press and 2500 ton press is expected to be commissioned in 1QFY20. Execution of new orders is expected to drive revenue in this business (eg. Dana Spicer).

    For MMT JV, execution of JLR order, new business with Maruti Suzuki and other domestic OEM’s is expected to lead to revenue growth for the JV. Further, management highlighted about improved visibility on the RE60 offtake from CY2019.

    EBITDA margin is expected to improve on the back of cost control measures and operating leverage benefits.

    We revise our revenue estimates upwards to factor in update on new orders. We also revise our below EBITDA line items in line with 1HFY19 performance.

    At the CMP, the stock is available at a PE of 8.3x on FY20E earnings. We maintain BUY rating on the stock with revised price target of Rs400 (earlier Rs396).


    Talbros Automotive Components Limited, the flagship manufacturing company of the Group, manufactures automotive & industrial Gaskets in collaboration with Coopers Payen of UK. Currently company manufactures gaskets & heat shields, forgings, suspension systems, anti-vibration components and hoses. TBA has three joint ventures – Nippon Leakless Talbros Pvt. Ltd (JV partner - Leakless Corporation – Japan), Magneti Marelli Talbros Chassis Systems Pvt. Ltd. (JV partner - Magneti Marelli - Italy) and Talbros Marugo Rubber Pvt. Ltd. (JV partner - Marugo Rubber - Japan). In terms of revenue (as per Indian Gaap), 60% of revenues comes from gaskets, 26% from forging, 10% from MMT JV and 4% from TMR JV.


    BUY - We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months
    ACCUMULATE - We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months
    REDUCE - We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
    SELL - We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months
    NR - Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only.
    SUBSCRIBE - We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO.
    RS - Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA - Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable
    NM - Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
    NOTE - Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.


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