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  • Stock Recommendation | NBCC (INDIA) LTD (NBCC) – ACCUMULATE – Target Price : 83

    Publish date: NOVEMBER 16, 2018

    NBCC Q2FY19 results was below our estimates at PAT level due to lower margins in PMC segment on account of adoption of new Accounting standard AS-115. However, the revenue for the quarter was above our estimates due to strong growth in PMC segment.

    The standalone net revenue for the quarter grew by 39.7% yoy to Rs 15.8 bn (Vs our estimates of 17% yoy growth to Rs 13.3 bn) on strong revenue from PMC and real estate segment. PMC segment which contributes the largest pie, reported 39% yoy growth as against our estimates of 20% yoy growth.

    EBITDA for the quarter was Rs 591 mn, declined by 30% yoy despite strong execution, due to decline in EBIT margin in PMC segment. The adoption of new Ind AS 115 resulted into change in accounting treatment of advance payment of PMC margins. PAT for the quarter grew by 16% yoy to Rs 860 mn due to higher other income.

    NBCC has a robust total order book of Rs 800 bn which gives strong revenue growth visibility for the next 5 years.


    The company has maintained guidance of 30%-35% yoy growth in FY19E revenue despite delay in clearance of redevelopment project at Nauroji Nagar. We have cut our earnings estimates for FY19E and FY20E factoring in impact of delay in clearance of redevelopment of colonies in Delhi due to legal hurdles and lower margins reported by the company. The stock is presently trading at PE of 29x and 22.7x based on FY19E & FY20E revised EPS of Rs 2.1 (vs 2.3 earlier) and Rs 2.6 (vs Rs 2.9 earlier) respectively. We maintain Buy on the stock with a revised SOTP based target price of Rs 83 (Vs Rs 95 earlier).


    The standalone net revenue for the quarter grew by 40% yoy to Rs 15.8 bn (Vs our estimates of 20% yoy growth) on strong execution in PMC and Real estate segment. PMC segment which contributes the largest pie, reported 37% yoy growth as against our estimates of 20% yoy growth. Real estate business reported strong revenue in the quarter at Rs 533 mn driven by sale of commercial inventory. EPC segment witnessed decline in revenue in the quarter and was below our estimates. The company expects revenue to grow at over 30%-35% in FY19E. There was also an impact of change in accounting policy on revenue as the company adopted new Ind AS 115.


    EBITDA for the quarter was Rs 591 mn, declined by 30% yoy despite strong execution, due to decline in EBIT margin in PMC segment. The adoption of new Ind AS 115 resulted into change in accounting treatment of advance payment of PMC margins. The margins in PMC division was below our estimates at 7.7%, declined by 900 bps yoy due to accounting changes and quarterly variations. As per the management, EBIT margins in PMC segment is expected to be maintained at previous levels on full year basis in the longer run. PAT for the quarter grew by 16% yoy to Rs 860 mn due to higher other income.


    NBCC has strong order book of Rs 800 bn which includes Rs 500 bn of self-revenue generating project (Redevelopment project). The present order book gives very strong revenue growth visibility for the next 5 years. The company’s management has targeted for over 30-35% revenue growth in FY19E despite its large size project of redevelopment of government colonies stuck due to NGT raising issue related to tree cutting. The Delhi High court has cleared two colonies Netaji Nagar and Sarojini Nagar and decision on Naruroji Nagar is expected to come in next hearing expected by month end (November 18). The company expects contribution from these projects (if cleared) by Q4FY19. The management is confident of achieving its guidance of 30% growth in revenue even without contribution from this projects in FY19E as other large size projects are moving on expected line.


    Out of Rs 800 bn order book, the company has not awarded work on Rs.380-400 bn. It targets to award Rs 110 bn of work in FY19E of which it has already awarded Rs 70 bn of work and another Rs 40-45 bn of work is expected to be awarded in H2FY19. The company has awarded Rs 45-50 bn of work related to Nauroji Nagar project and expects to award fresh order post clearance from the court. Further, the company has strong pipeline of new orders. NBCC is awarded to complete real estate projects of Amrapali group which has ~Rs 80 bn of construction work to be executed. The company would be doing this project on PMC basis and is not required to invest any amount in the same.


    NBCC intends to consolidate revenue from HSCL and new acquisition of HSCC from Q3FY19. The consolidation of these two companies will strengthen its consolidated revenue.

    The company has already secured Rs 100 bn of work FY19 till date and is well positioned in 2-3 projects of value Rs 100-150 bn in H2FY19.

    The company is targeting to acquire Jaypee Infratech (which is under NCLT) and is expected to submit proposal by year end. The deal would go through only if the proposal submitted by the company gets accepted and if it is profitable to them. As per the company, there is huge real estate development potential associated with Jaypee Infratech which will make the deal profitable in the longer run.


    Based on strong current order book of Rs 800 bn and robust pipeline for future projects, we expect high growth in NBCC’s revenue in next 5 years. But its large size project related to redevelopment of government colonies in Delhi is under litigation. The company has maintained guidance of 30%-35% yoy growth in FY19E revenue despite delay in clearance of redevelopment project at Nauroji Nagar. We have cut our earnings estimates for FY19E and FY20E factoring in impact of delay in clearance of redevelopment of colonies in Delhi due to legal hurdles and lower margins reported by the company. The stock is presently trading at PE of 29x and 22.7x based on FY19E & FY20E revised EPS of Rs 2.1 (vs 2.3 earlier) and Rs 2.6 (vs Rs 2.9 earlier) respectively. We maintain Buy on the stock with a revised SOTP based target price of Rs 83 (Vs Rs 95 earlier)



    NBCC (India) Ltd is a Navratna PSU company engaged in the business of project management consultancy (PMC), EPC contract and Real Estate development. The PMC business involves concept to commissioning of civil construction projects from various government departments. The company gets PMC contracts mostly on nomination basis as it has been notified as Public Work Organization under revised Rule 126 (2) of General Financial Rules (GFR). The real estate business involves development of residential and commercial projects on government or PSUs land through Joint Development or Land bank based development model. The company has 150 acres land parcels spread across cities such as Delhi, Gurgaon, Kolkata, Kochi, Alwar, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Faridabad, Lucknow, Patna, etc. The company has a very small presence in EPC business where it undertakes EPC contracts involving civil structural work in power BOP space. The company is not much focused on this division. NBCC is designated as the implementing agency for executing projects under various government program such as Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY), Solid Waste Management (SWM) and developmental work in North Eastern Region.


    BUY - We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months
    ACCUMULATE - We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months
    REDUCE - We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
    SELL - We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months
    NR - Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only.
    SUBSCRIBE - We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO.
    RS - Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA - Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable
    NM - Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
    NOTE - Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.


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