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  • Stock Recommendation | JINDAL STAINLESS HISAR LTD – BUY – Target Price : 110

    Publish date: FEBRUARY 08, 2019

    JSHL’s 3QFY19 numbers were a mixed bag, with revenue higher than estimates, EBITDA margin was lower due to increase in raw material costs. However, PAT came in line with estimates, due to forex gain of Rs217.9 bn. Increase in raw material costs, offset the benefit of higher realisation, resulting in 130bps QoQ decline in margin to 9%.

    Volume during the quarter declined sequentially to 158,000 tonnes, due to subdued demand across the segments, continuous focus on value added products (+19% YoY) helped the company to garner better realisation. Imports during the quarter declined marginally and remained in the range of 30-35kt/monthly. Realisation during the quarter stood at Rs141,349/tonne.

    EBITDA/t during the quarter declined to Rs12,734/tonne from Rs13,840/tonne in 2QFY19, due to increase in input costs. During the quarter, the company reported inventory loss of Rs432 mn, on account of fall in nickel prices. On an average the company has ~25kt of nickel inventory as open position.

    Both the subsidiary reported the strong operating performance during the quarter, with JSL Lifestyle reporting EBITDA of Rs340 mn and Rs100 mn at JSSL.

    Management indicated that Q4FY19, likely to see an improvement given the strong order book and marginal uptick in the nickel prices (management expects nickel prices to stable at the current levels).

    The company is incurring capex of Rs2 Bn to expand its presence in the long product segment by setting up an additional line of 50,000 tonnes capacity (long product segment), expected to come on stream by end of FY19 and strengthening its downstream production (precision strips) which is expected to come on stream in FY20.




    We believe, an increasing share of value added products in the overall product mix coupled with strong performance at JSL Lifestyle (backed by railway order), shall support the earnings. However, given the subdued demand across the verticals, open inventory position and factoring 3QFY19 performance, we revised our estimates lower for FY19E and FY20E to Rs13.8 (earlier Rs16.1) and Rs14.7 (earlier Rs20.2), respectively. Upside risks: Upticks in nickel prices can act as a major tailwind. The stock has corrected sharply in the recent past, and we believe at current valuation of 3.1x/2.4x FY19E/FY20E EV/EBITDA, the stock factors in all the potential negatives. Though we continue to maintain our BUY rating, with a revised target price of Rs110 (earlier Rs205), lowering our valuation multiple to 4.5x EV/EBITDA.


    The price of key raw materials, nickel and ferro chrome declined during the quarter, but the benefit of the same will accrue in the coming quarters. As company still has high cost inventory on its books, on which it reported Rs430 mn of inventory loss. Management indicated, at any given point, the company has 25kt of open inventory position.


    The raw material costs increased by Rs3,012/tonne QoQ to Rs88,511/tonne, due to high cost inventory. This coupled with increase in power costs (both coal and propane) and electrodes prices (up 5x) offset the benefit of a higher share of value added products in overall basket (sales +19% YoY and volume +10% YoY). EBITDA/t during the quarter declined to Rs12,734/tonne. Realisation during the quarter continued to remain strong (+5% QoQ) to Rs141,349/tonne, supported by an increase in value added products. Imports continue to remain high (monthly average of 35kt (excluding pipes and tubes), despite the countervailing duty), though declined marginally which is being routed through Free Trade Agreement countries. Imports from Indonesia is up 9x YoY.













    JSHL was formerly a part of JSL. Pursuant to the approval of the composite Scheme of Arrangement by the Hon’ble High Court of Punjab & Haryana at Chandigarh, the plant was transferred from JSL to JSHL. Jindal Stainless (Hisar) Limited has integrated its operations on a strategy of both, backward and forward integration, starting from melting, casting, hot rolling to cold rolling and other value additions. Hisar plant is an integrated Stainless Steel plant with a capacity of 8,00,000 tpa. JSHL is the world’s largest SS producer strips for razor blades and India’s largest producer of coin blanks, catering to Indian and International mint needs. JSHL was first in popularizing the 200 series throughout the world. JSHL caters to a diversified market and no single customer accounts for over 5% of total sales. Specialty product division caters to the high end precision and specialty stainless steel requirements of reputed Indian and International customers.


    BUY - We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months
    ADD - We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months
    REDUCE - We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
    SELL - We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months
    NR - Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only.
    SUBSCRIBE - We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO.
    RS - Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA - Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable
    NM - Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
    NOTE - Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.


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