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Home » Research » Kotak Research Center » Stock Recommendation Cesc Buy Target Price Rs 1180
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  • Stock Recommendation | CESC - BUY - Target price : Rs 1,180

    Publish date: OCTOBER 15, 2018

    Re-structuring going through, despite the odds CESC has announced October 31, 2018 as the record date for the proposed re-structuring of its various businesses into individually listed units. Pending approval from WBERC for separation of transmission and generation entities, the transaction will for now split the company into three entities (instead of four) with generation and distribution remaining combined. Maintain BUY rating with target price of Rs1,180/share.


    Generation and distribution to remain one entity, listing of retail and ventures to go ahead now

    CESC has announced October 31, 2018 as the record date for the vertical split of the retail business and other ventures (First Source and mall in Kolkata) with subsequent listing of the same. Pending approval of separation of generation and distribution business into separately listed entities (as was originally proposed), the two entities will remain under the present listed company till such time that the approval from West Bengal Electricity Regulatory Commission (WBERC) comes through.
    Street was of the view that separate listing of the generation and distribution business would have yielded a quantum of value unlocking as (1) the distribution business may have a more steady growth profile as well as opportunities to win new circles under the franchise model, and (2) the generation business has a more modest growth outlook and the earnings for the same are dragged by continued under-utilization at Dhariwal. We would contend that separation of the generation and distribution business would lead to further sub-division of the power assets and result in multiple smaller entities. The key objective of the re-structuring was a reduction in the dependence of the retail business on capital infusion from the power business.


    Three catalysts for value creation; improvement already under way

    CESC will likely benefit from (1) re-rating of trading multiples as concerns on capital allocation across business verticals cease to exist post restructuring, (2) improved capacity utilization at Chandrapur helps the company earn normalized returns, and (3) better operating metrics for the retail business. We note that CESC currently trades at 7X P/E on FY2020E earnings and 0.8X P/B compared to industry average of 9.5X P/E and 1.1X P/B, and the current re-structuring will help CESC re-rate to comparable multiples. Losses at Spencer have already reduced from Rs1.5 bn in FY2015 to Rs300 mn in FY2018 with operating metrics pointing towards further improvement. Losses at Dhariwal reduced to Rs1.9 bn in FY2018 from Rs5.9 bn in FY2016.


    Maintain BUY rating with target price of Rs1,180/share

    CESC continues to report stable performance from extant operations in Kolkata as well as Haldia, even as improving PLFs at Dhariwal will improve consolidated earnings in FY2019E. Maintain TP of Rs1,180/share and BUY rating.


    Exhibit


    Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

    Definitions of ratings

    BUY - We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
    ADD - We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
    REDUCE - We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
    SELL - We expect this stock to deliver

    Our target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.


    Other definitions

    Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst's overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.


    Other ratings/identifiers

    NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
    CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.
    NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.
    RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
    NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.



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