Page Industries Q4FY25 Results: Strong Growth, But SELL View Remains
Page Industries (PAG) reported its Q4FY25 earnings with some encouraging numbers — but inflation and valuation concerns keep the recommendation unchanged: SELL. Here’s a simple breakdown.
Revenue & Volume Growth
| Metric | Result | Estimate | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue Growth (YoY) | 10.3% | 8.0% | Led by 8.5% volume growth |
Volume Growth | 8.5% | - | Strong sales momentum |
“PAG’s Q4FY25 revenue growth came in at 10.3% YoY, higher than our expectation of 8.0% YoY growth.”
Inflation impact: Consumer spending took a hit in H1FY25 due to inflation.
“Inflationary pressures constrained consumer spending, particularly in H1FY25.”
Margins & Profitability
| Margin Type | Result | Estimate | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
Gross Margin | 60.9% | - | 341 bps ahead due to RM softness |
EBITDA Margin | 21.4% | 20.2% | Strong operational efficiency |
“GM print of 60.9% was 341 bps ahead of our estimate benign RM environment.”
“Reported strong EBITDA margin of 21.4% (versus our estimate of 20.2%).”
Valuation & Outlook
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Current Market Price | ₹46,940 |
Fair Value (DCF-based) | ₹39,000 |
Previous Fair Value | ₹38,000 |
Revenue estimates for FY26-27 trimmed by ~2%, while EPS estimates up 1% for FY27.
“We trim FY26-27 revenue estimates by ~2% & increase EPS by 1% for FY27E.”
“The current valuations price in aggressive growth recovery. Retain SELL.”
Why SELL?
-
Stock price well above fair value.
-
Inflation dampening consumer spending remains a risk.
-
Much of the growth optimism already priced in.
Quick Recap Table
| Aspect | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|
Revenue | Beat estimates, strong volume |
Margins | Better than expected |
Inventory | Improved significantly |
Valuation | Overvalued, price above fair value |
Recommendation | SELL |
Final Thought
Page Industries is growing and managing costs well — but the stock’s current price leaves little room for upside. Strong results alone don’t justify buying when valuations are stretched.
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