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  • Stock Recommendation | VASCON ENGINEERS LTD (VEL) – BUY – Target Price : 30

    Publish date: NOVEMBER 6, 2018

    VEL Q2FY19 results were below our estimates on account of weak sales in real estate, no major revenue contribution from completed project and adoption of Ind AS 115 resulting in the company reporting loss for the quarter. However EPC segment witnessed strong revenue growth.


    Net revenue for the quarter grew at 27.6% yoy to Rs 697 mn driven by 74.3% yoy growth in EPC business at Rs 613 mn and real estate revenue declined by 56.8% yoy to Rs 84 mn. The company witnessed slowdown in the real estate business with cancellation of bookings in its affordable housing project due to challenges faced by NBFCs delaying lending for the affordable segment.

    The company reported operating loss of Rs 69 mn as against our estimates of Rs 48 mn of operating profit on account of higher loss in real estate segment.

    VEL received Rs 2.6 bn of new orders in H1FY19 and which took its external order book to Rs 7.63 bn and is on track to achieve Rs 5 bn of new orders in FY19E. The company is also facing challenges on extension of BG limits and based on current limited it can bid for Rs 4-5 bn of projects.


    The company is confident of meeting its revenue and order inflows guidance for EPC segment. Despite current challenges in affordable housing segment, VEL is targeting Rs 3 bn of real estate booking in FY19E which would be largely be contributed by launches in mid-segment projects in Pune (Forest Edge and Forest County) and Coimbatore.

    We have revised our estimates for FY19E and FY20E factoring in lower revenue from real estate segment and lower order inflows expected in EPC segment in FY20E. We maintain Buy on VEL with revised SOTP based target price of Rs 30 (Vs Rs 48 earlier).


    The standalone net revenue for the quarter grew at 27.6% yoy to Rs 697 mn driven by 74.3% yoy growth in EPC business at Rs 613 mn (Vs estimates of Rs 682 mn) and real estate revenue declined by 57% yoy to Rs 84 mn (Vs estimates of Rs 104 mn). The decline in real estate segment is due to no major contribution from completed project Windermere as the company has sold one unit in the quarter due to weak demand for the premium project. The EPC (external) segment witnessed strong revenue growth in the quarter as its projects moved well in terms of execution. We expect the execution in the EPC segment to remain strong based on robust order book and order inflows. Its subsidiary, GMP is also doing well and is expected to execute large size Tata Steel door order from Q3FY19 end and is expected to achieve revenue of Rs 300 mn from the same in FY19E and ~ Rs 1bn in FY20E. The company had guided for Rs 2-2.5 bn of revenue from GMP in FY19E.


    The company reported operating loss of Rs 69 mn as against our estimates of Rs 48 mn operating profit on account of higher loss in real estate segment. The company has not witnessed any major sales in the real estate segment in the quarter while fixed cost for the segment remained high as it has built up strong real estate team to market its projects. Change in AS also negatively impacted the reported operating performance of the segment. Further, contribution from Windermere project in revenue also resulted in losses due to operating loss in the project. On the other hand, EPC segment continued with healthy EBIT margins of 16%.




    VEL has strong external order backlog of Rs 7.63 bn and internal order book of Rs 1.7 bn at the end of Q2FY19 which takes total order backlog at ~Rs 11 bn. VEL has added Rs 1.9 bn and Rs 360 mn of new orders in Q1FY19 and Q2FY19 respectively. Based on current order pipeline, it has maintained guidance of Rs 5 bn of new projects in FY19E. Based on current gross block, VEL can execute Rs 10 bn of EPC work in a year. But, due to constraints related to BG limit, the company is eligible to bid for Rs 4-5bn of projects. In current macro environment any increase in BG limit seems to be difficult in near future. Hence the order inflows in FY20E is expected to remain flattish.


    The company has achieved new sales bookings of Rs 1.36 bn in H1FY19 which is lower than Rs 1.64 bn of sales achieved in Q1FY19. This is on account of cancellation of bookings in its affordable housing project at Katvi where it had sold Rs 1.02 bn of inventory on launch based on scheme where it tied up with NBFCs for financing. But several loan proposals was not processed by the NBFC due to liquidity issue and challenges faced by NBFCs. This has negatively impacted the financing of its affordable housing project. The company is reworking on its strategy for affordable housing project before future launches in the segment.

    Despite current challenges in affordable housing segment, VEL is targeting Rs 3 bn of real estate sales which would be largely achieved from launches in midsegment projects in Pune (Forest Edge and Forest County) and Coimbatore. It is launching two towers of Forest County with total sales value of Rs 1.1 bn, one tower of Forest Edge of Rs 600 mn, 300,000 sqft of inventory in Coimbatore of value Rs 2 bn in the next 3-6 months. It is targeting to launch Madurai project in Q1FY20. The company is expecting strong response to these projects. In its premium project ‘Windermere’ in Pune, it could sell only one unit in Q2FY19 and expects OC in Tower-2 in next one month. The company is looking at refining of high cost debt of Rs 900 mn related to the projects.


    The company aims to reduce its consolidated debt which stood at Rs 2.7 bn. It also targets to reduce/refinance the high cost debt related to Windermere which it got financed from Edelweiss.

    The company is at final stage of selling non-core asset at Andheri. Further, it intends to sell other non-core assets including land at Aurangabad, hotels at Goa, stake in subsidiary GMP, etc


    The company is confident of meeting its revenue and order inflows guidance for EPC segment. Despite current challenges in affordable housing segment, VEL is targeting Rs 3 bn of real estate sales which would be largely achieved from launches in mid-segment projects in Pune (Forest Edge and Forest County) and Coimbatore. We have revised our estimates for FY19E and FY20E factoring in lower revenue from real estate segment due to new Ind AS 115, higher fixed cost in real estate and lower order inflows expected in FY20E in EPC segment. The stock is trading at FY19E and FY20E PE of 25.6x and 8.9x based on revised EPS of Rs 0.7 and Rs 2.1 respectively. We have reduced valuation multiple for all three businesses (EPC - 7x Vs 8x EV/EBITDA, Real estate - 0.5x NAV Vs 1x NAV, 7x Vs 9x EV/EBITDA in GMP) factoring in challenges related to real estate business in current macro environment and increased risk on meeting higher growth in EPC mid to near term. We maintain Buy on VEL with revised SOTP based target price of Rs 30 (Vs Rs 48 earlier).



    Vascon Engineers Ltd (VEL) has presence in construction and development of residential and commercial real estate projects with a history of over 25 years. VEL through its EPC and real estate verticals is active in multiple sectors including residential, industrial, IT parks, malls, multiplexes, hospitality and community. The company has presence in more than 10 states and has completed over 200 contracts of approx 50 mn sqft. In EPC, VEL has expertise across various types of buildings and has capability to execute 8 mn sqft of projects (or Rs 10 bn in value) per annum. In real estate, its land current portfolio includes 30.9 mn sqft of saleable area with VEL’s share of 16.2 mn sqft. Its 85% subsidiary, GMP Technicals Solutions is one of the leading players in clean room partitioning systems and turnkey solution provider in India having manufacturing facilities in Baddi, Himachal Pradesh and in Bhiwandi, Thane that is engaged in making fibre doors, aluminum doors & windows, clean room partition & windows, aluminum sections, etc.


    BUY - We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months
    ACCUMULATE - We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months
    REDUCE - We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
    SELL - We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months
    NR - Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only.
    SUBSCRIBE - We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO.
    RS - Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA - Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable
    NM - Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
    NOTE - Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.


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