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  • Stock Recommendation | TALBROS AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENTS LTD – BUY – Target Price : 335

    Publish date: FEBRUARY 18, 2019

    Revenue growth for the company remained strong in 3QFY19. However contraction in EBITDA margin limited EBITDA growth to 12% YoY and PAT growth to 13% YoY.

    TBA’s consolidated revenue in the quarter came in at Rs1,251mn, 23% growth YoY. Company witnessed strong YoY revenue growth across segments. EBITDA margin came down YoY by 100bps due to higher raw material cost and increased share of OEM revenues in the mix. Share of profit from JV was higher YoY, but declined over 2QFY19. Consolidated revenue only includes standalone gasket and forging revenue; as for joint venture, under IndAS, the net profit is taken in share of profit from JV/associates.


    In 9MFY19, TBA’s revenue has grown strongly in all business segments with forging segment reporting 69% YoY growth. EBITDA margin was lower in 3QFY19; but in 9MFY19, EBITDA margins improved by 86bps to 10.8%. We expect company’s revenue to grow on the back of execution of new order wins across segments, expected gradual pick-up in domestic auto demand, scale-up in forging division and additional revenue opportunity with BSVI implementation. EBITDA margins are expected to improve from 3QFY19 levels as full impact of input cost pass through will flow in coming quarters. We marginally revise our estimates lower. We retain BUY on the stock with revised price target of Rs335 (earlier Rs400). At the CMP, the stock is trading at a PE of 8.8x / 6.8x its estimated FY19E/FY20E earnings.




    ■ TBA reported consolidated revenue of Rs1,251mn, 23% higher over 3QFY18. Consolidated revenue only includes standalone gasket and forging revenue; as for joint venture, under IndAS, the net profit is taken in share of profit from JV/associates. Standalone gasket revenue grew by 22% YoY to Rs903mn (includes other income) on the back of volume growth, execution of new orders and market share gains. Forging business revenue continued with strong growth on the back of execution of new orders. In 3QFY19 forging segment revenue grew by 41% YoY to Rs410mn (includes other income). TBA’s revenue growth of 23% is much ahead of domestic OEM production growth reported across segments.
    ■ During the quarter, company’s EBIDTA margin witnessed pressure due to rise in input cost prices and increased OEM share in the revenue mix. Consistent rise in raw material prices and with cost pass through happening with a lag, company’s margins witnessed contraction. Further, share of OEM’s in the gasket segment increased from 73% in 3QFY18 and 75% in 2QFY19 to 78% in 3QFY19. On the back of above mentioned reasons, gross margins declined from 43.1% in 3QFY18 to 41.8% in 3QFY19. Consolidated PAT in the quarter grew by 13% YoY on the back of increase in profits from its joint venture.
    ■ Nippon Leakless Talbros (NLT) revenue growth in the quarter was low at 2% due to lower production by Honda Motorcycles and Scooters India. EBITDA for this JV remained unchanged at Rs52mn and PAT grew by 8% to Rs33mn. NLT JV revenue comes primarily from selling gasket to two wheeler segment with Hero Moto Corp and Honda Motorcycle and Scooters India as their key customers.
    ■ Marelli Talbros Chassis Systems (MMT) JV witnessed 21% YoY growth in revenues in 3QFY19, led by increased volume growth of certain key models of Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors. MMT’s EBITDA grew by 79% YoY from higher volume and improved cost efficiencies PAT at this JV grew by 77% to Rs17mn.
    ■ Talbros Marugo Rubber (TMR) JV revenues increased by 33% YoY, EBIDTA grew by 75% YoY and the JV reported marginal profit in 3QFY19 as against loss reported in 3QFY18.


    In the gasket segment, the company enjoys 40% market share (increases to 52% including joint venture share). Growth in this segment is expected to come from volume increase, new business in both domestic and export segments, increased content per vehicle (Tata Cummins revenue increase likely to be 2-2.5x) with BSVI implementation and higher management focus on heat shield in global markets.

    Forging business revenue grew by 69% YoY in 9MFY19. On the back of new order execution and company’s focus on moving towards high tonnage press, we expect revenue growth in this business to remain healthy over the medium term. Higher tonnage press will start commercial production in 2QFY19.

    For MMT JV, full impact of JLR order execution, new business with Maruti Suzuki and other domestic OEM’s is expected to lead to revenue growth for the JV. For sustaining growth, MMT JV is setting up new plant in Pune and the funding for the same will be done by the JV (no additional capital infusion by TBA).
    EBITDA margin was partly impacted on account of increasing raw material prices. Management highlighted that 75% of the input cost pass through has happened and the balance 25% will happen in 4QFY19. We expect that with full pass through and company’s internal cost control measures, EBITDA margin to witness gradual improvement going ahead.

    We marginally revise our estimates lower. At the CMP, the stock is trading at a PE of 8.8x / 6.8x its estimated FY19E/FY20E earnings. We retain BUY on the stock with revised price target of Rs335 (earlier Rs400). We value the stock at a PE of 12x (earlier 14x) on FY20E earnings.




    Talbros Automotive Components Limited, the flagship manufacturing company of the Group, manufactures automotive & industrial Gaskets in collaboration with Coopers Payen of UK. Currently company manufactures gaskets & heat shields, forgings, suspension systems, anti-vibration components and hoses. TBA has three joint ventures – Nippon Leakless Talbros Pvt. Ltd (JV partner - Leakless Corporation – Japan), Magneti Marelli Talbros Chassis Systems Pvt. Ltd. (JV partner - Magneti Marelli - Italy) and Talbros Marugo Rubber Pvt. Ltd. (JV partner - Marugo Rubber - Japan). In terms of revenue (as per Indian Gaap), 60% of revenues comes from gaskets, 26% from forging, 10% from MMT JV and 4% from TMR JV.


    BUY - We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months
    ADD - We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months
    REDUCE - We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
    SELL - We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months
    NR - Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only.
    SUBSCRIBE - We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO.
    RS - Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA - Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable
    NM - Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
    NOTE - Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.


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