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  • Stock Recommendation | SUVEN LIFE SCIENCES – BUY – Target Price : 425

    Publish date: JANUARY 29, 2019

    Suven Life Sciences is a research based service provider to global innovator companies by supplying intermediates for New Chemical Entities (NCE) development, which could potentially translate into long-term supplies if the drug is approved. Our analysis highlights that company’s earnings have reached a sustainable base (three drugs commercialized over last three years) and will continue to improve on this base going ahead. The company has a strong balance sheet with the support of best management team. It has followed a unique path with the dream of new drug development (via using cash generated from its base CRAMS business) with its own efforts and focus on Alzheimer and central nervous system diseases, an investment opportunity with focused return.

    The CRAMS business is the bread earner for the company and has grown strongly over last three years (CAGR 9 % FY15-18). This business has established a new base with the help of increased number of projects in phase II and Phase I coupled with commercial/ pre-commercial supplies from FY14 onwards. Specialty chemical business segment has also grown at CAGR of 50% (FY12-FY17E). New capacity addition at Vizag plant (1.32bn invested) also provides ample room for any future capacity needs (i.e.3-4 years).


    The Company spends ~13% of its revenues on the development of its owned research new drug pipeline. The R&D spend has grown with a CAGR of 20% over FY15-18 while revenues grew at 5.6% CAGR (FY15E-18). The entire R&D spend is expensed straight from the P&L. This makes the balance sheet very strong with no capitalized asset risk. The key pipeline from its NCE base includes SUVN502, SUVN 3031, SUVN4010 and SUVN 911.


    SUVN 502 -The molecule is currently in Phase II studies and the company has finished recruiting 563 patients closing the recruitment for phase II trial, taking the phase two trials to final stage of completion. This process can reach to final data output by 2QFY20.If data points turn positive, then this can be a huge opportunity for out-licensing. If out-licensed we expect it could garner an upfront of ~ USD 150-200mn. As the product advances to further development, it will attract milestone payments along with profit sharing depending on the terms of the deal inked.


    Currently 5.7 mn people suffer from Alzheimer’s disease ("AD") in US and is expected to reach 14 mn people by 2050. The total cost to the nation estimated to add up to USD 277 bn in 2018. Out of this ~USD 60 bn is from out of the pocket. AD is a prominent segment in need of new breakthrough since last two decades.


    We like Suven for its high margin profile (EBITDA margin of >30% and net margin of ~20%). After a soft FY19, we expect earnings to grow by 25-30% in the next two years. The Company shows steady return ratios of 22-25% ROIC and 18% ROE. We have valued the stock at 18x FY21E core EPS of Rs.19 (excluding the R&D spend) fetching a price of Rs.354. We have added the value of upfront from SUVN 502 and other 4 molecules put together at Rs 71 (i.e. Net Present Value of these molecules). Hence, on an aggregate basis we derive at our target price of Rs.450. There could be upside risk to the price target coming from company’s R&D pipeline.


    1) USFDA compliance
    2) NCE pipeline uncertainty


    BUY - We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months
    ACCUMULATE - We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months
    REDUCE - We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
    SELL - We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months
    NR - Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only.
    SUBSCRIBE - We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO.
    RS - Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA - Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable
    NM - Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
    NOTE - Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.


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