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  • Stock Recommendation | MOIL LTD – BUY – Target Price : 200

    Publish date: FEBRUARY 12, 2019

    MOIL Q3FY19 performance was above our estimates due to higher than expected realisation and lower tax rate. Blended ore realizations stood at Rs11,080/tonne, up 14.4% YoY. However, prices are likely to remain subdued in the coming quarters, thereby restricting earnings upside

    Manganese ore shipments declined 3.4%/9.6% YoY/QoQ to 282kt (production volume stood at 360kt). Given the subdued demand, the MOIL has added 88,000 tonnes of inventory in 9MFY19 which it plans on offloading in the subsequent quarters as demand environment improves.

    PAT during the quarter stood at Rs1.20 bn, higher than our estimate, due to higher operating profit and lower tax rate.

    The company has taken price cuts of 10% and 5% in Jan and Feb which will impact realizations in 4QFY19 and overall profitability.


    We believe, manganese ore prices to remain subdued due to the weak steel price outlook and the same would reflect on the demand of the manganese ore in the near term. The company has revised its prices downwards, which will impact the realisation in the coming quarter. Factoring the same, we have revised our earnings downwards to Rs15.4 (earlier Rs19.4) and Rs18 (earlier Rs17.2) for FY19E and FY20E, respectively. At CMP, the stock trades at 10.2x/8.8x FY19E/FY20E earnings and on EV/EBITDA, it trades at 3.9x/2.8x FY19E/FY20E EBITDA. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with revised target price of Rs200 (earlier Rs260), lowering our valuation multiple to 4.5x FY20E EV/EBITDA, due to weak outlook in the near term.




    Sales volume during the quarter declined 3.4% YoY and 9.6% QoQ to 2.8MT. Ore sales volumes were lower than production volumes of 0.32MT leading to a buildup of inventory in the quarter. The MOIL has added 88,000 tonnes of inventory in 9MFY19 which it plans on offloading in the subsequent quarters as demand environment improves. Lower volume partly offset the benefit of higher realisation. Non-Fines realization increased 7% YoY to Rs12,159/t (+6.8% QoQ), while Fines realization was up 4%YoY at Rs3,301/t.

    EBITDA during the quarter grew 25.9% YoY and 5.7% QoQ to Rs1.55bn, with an EBITDA margin of 46.5%. Going ahead, due to subdued manganese ore price outlook, we expect margin to remain in the range of 40-44%. We have modeled 1.1MT and 1.3MT of volume in FY19E and FY20E, respectively.







    MOIL is a debt free company with a robust balance sheet and a healthy liquidity position. The strong balance sheet, makes the company better placed to expand its mining capacity and to acquire other mines. The company is well placed to fund its capex of Rs15-20 bn till FY21, backed by its strong cash flow. It has a healthy operating cash flow of ~Rs4bn every year, which would further add up to the cash balance. Besides this, dividend yield is likely to remain in the range of 2-3% in the coming years. Higher liquidity and attractive dividend yield provide a high margin of safety.


    MoIL has ~81.47MT of reserves & resources (R&R) of manganese ore out of which ~44% are proven reserves. Currently, MOIL operates 10 mines: six in Maharashtra and four in Madhya Pradesh. These include 3 open cast mines and 7 underground mines. The company’s annual production of manganese ore is over 1MT. MOIL also has a ferro manganese plant with an installed capacity of 10000 tonnes, an electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) plant with a capacity of 1000 tonnes and two wind power plants with an aggregate capacity of 20 MW.


    BUY - We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months
    ADD - We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months
    REDUCE - We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
    SELL - We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months
    NR - Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only.
    SUBSCRIBE - We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO.
    RS - Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
    NA - Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable
    NM - Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
    NOTE - Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.


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